Could Jordan become a new battleground in US-Iran tensions?
Analysis: The drone attack on US forces in Jordan has raised fears that the country could become a new theatre for regional tensions.
8 February 2024
From the empty expanse of the desert, one of Jordan’s worst nightmares unfolded: the death of US troops on its soil.
On 28 January, an attack drone infiltrated the darkness surrounding an isolated US outpost along Jordan’s border with Syria, known as Tower 22.
The drone crept past the advanced American air defence systems, killing three US soldiers and wounding dozens more – marking a brazen escalation in the already simmering region.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq, an umbrella group of Iran-linked militias including Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, has claimed responsibility for the attack and named Israel’s offensive in Gaza as its reason.
In recent years, Iranian-backed militias have grown increasingly bold on the Jordan-Syria border, particularly surrounding Tower 22 in Jordan, near the US’s al-Tanf Garrison, just a step over the border in Syria.
The latest strike within Jordan’s borders was “certainly a significant escalation”, Merissa Khurma, an analyst with the Wilson Center, told The New Arab. “The primary goal was to attack the US’s presence, but it was also to send a message to Jordan,” Khurma said.
The attack was the first in Jordan since the war in Gaza. The Kingdom, with strong US and Western ties, has long been seen as a beacon of stability.
The US base intercepts the strategic Baghdad-Damascus highway, which Iranian-backed groups have long sought to control for their lucrative weapons and drugs trade. As the Jordanian military has attempted to deter the illicit trade it has been dragged into increasingly violent and deadly confrontations with Tehran’s proxies.
“They are using the drug trade as a tool to weaken Jordan,” Abdullah Hayek, a Washington-based Jordanian analyst specialised in Iranian-backed militias, told TNA.
In four of Jordan’s neighbouring countries – Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen – Iranian-backed groups have expanded their influence. These militias, especially in Iraq, often compete for power according to their domestic interests and are not necessarily dictated to by Iran.
“They want Jordan to be the next domino piece,” Hayek said.