The Middle East’s inflection point

No one wants all-out war. It might happen anyway.

Members of Imam al-Mahdi Scouts mourn at the coffin of one of two siblings who were killed by what security sources said was an Israeli strike on Tuesday in Beirut’s southern suburbs, in Ghobeiry. Photo by Mohamed Azakir/Reuters

As the sun dipped below the horizon on the evening of 30 July, an explosion thundered across the Lebanese capital, Beirut. Within seconds a plume of smoke rose above the cityscape, leaving behind an apartment building reduced mostly to rubble.

Israel claimed responsibility for the attack, which killed the senior Hezbollah commander, Fouad Shukur, who Israel blames for orchestrating a 27 July strike in the Israel-occupied Golan Heights that killed 12 children and teenagers. 

The Israeli airstrike was more severe than some expected. In targeting densely populated Beirut, Israel disregarded the advice of its number one backer, the US. It marks the second time since 7 October Israel has hit Beirut’s southern Dahieh suburb, where Hezbollah has political and security operations, but which is also filled with bustling markets and vibrant communities. . At least four civilians died in the attack, including two women and two young children, and some 68 people were injured, according to Lebanon’s public health ministry.

Then, just hours later before the run rose, an airstrike killed Hamas’s top political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran, the capital of Israel’s bitter rival, Iran. The strike was announced by the militant group, who blamed Israel for the strike. Haniyeh — who was playing a leading role in ongoing ceasefire and hostage negotiations — is the highest-profile member of Hamas to be killed during Israel’s war in Gaza.

The back-to-back incidents threaten to ignite the region, which has been teetering on the edge of all-out war since Hamas’s attack on Israel on 7 October. The strikes hit Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah at the same time — risking a coordinated retaliation from all of Israel’s enemies united under Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance, a military alliance built over four decades to oppose Israeli and American power in the Middle East.
“There are lots of ways this could go, depending on how Iran and Hezbollah respond, but this is uncharted territory that could change the paradigm we’ve been in,” Mairav Zonszein, the International Crisis Groups (ICG)’s senior Israel-Palestine analyst, told me. “It’s an inflection point where we can’t go back.”

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