Will the fragile ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel hold?

Analysis: A ceasefire between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel to end over a year of fighting has begun, but what are the terms and will it succeed?

Source: The New Arab/Getty Images

28 November 2024

Beirut, Lebanon — On Wednesday morning Lebanon awoke to quiet skies, as the deadly hum of Israeli drones and the roar of warplanes had subsided. A ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, brokered by France and the US, ended over a year of intense fighting between the two adversaries.

Thousands of people packed their bags and belongings, climbed into cars, and headed south to their homes and villages – or what was left of them. The traffic jams on the southern highway were jubilant, as the returnees waved Hezbollah flags and raised their hands in signs of victory.

“Return proudly to your villages, to your fig and olive trees, because you have defeated the enemy,” Lebanon’s parliament speaker and Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri told displaced Lebanese in a televised address on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, much of the world is watching to see if the vague perimeters of the ceasefire agreement will hold.

“A lot of people have a lot to gain, but there’s also a lot of wishful thinking, and conflicting interpretations that are on the table simultaneously,” Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg told The New Arab.

The truce builds on the terms of UN Resolution 1701 – which ended the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah -and mandates UNIFIL and the Lebanese army as the exclusive armed presence south of Lebanon’s Litani River, excluding Hezbollah and Israel.

This time around, the deal expands the zone set to be free of Hezbollah weaponry and stipulates that only Lebanese “official military and security forces” are authorised to carry arms.

It gives a 60-day timeframe for Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters to withdraw, supervised by thousands of Lebanese soldiers and UN peacekeeping troops on the ground and monitored by a US-led international committee. 

Israel has pledged to aggressively respond to a breach of any terms, although what would exactly constitute such a breach remains unclear.

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