As an all-out war in the Middle East seems to be drawing closer by the second, many are pointing to Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as its catalyst. 

Within a matter of hours in late July, the Israeli leader had Hezbollah’s second-in-command, Fuad Shukr, assassinated in Beirut, and Hamas’s top political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, killed in Tehran.

The dual assassinations have steered all of Israel’s foes towards escalation – a treacherous scenario raising the spectre of a wider regional war – but have nonetheless secured Netanyahu political wins.

“With every successful assassination attempt by Israel, there is a political win for Netanyahu,” Merissa Khurma, the Middle East Program Director at the DC-based Wilson Center, told The New Arab.

“Prolonging the war also prolongs his staying in power and emboldens his right-wing government, as well as extremist voices across the region, both state and non-state actors,” she said.

The longer Netanyahu can delay a ceasefire deal and remain embroiled in the war in Gaza, the longer he can stave off early elections and the more time he has to pull off a war victory that could boost his domestic popularity, which he may have just done. 

Netanyahu’s ratings have improved in the aftermath of the assassinations. For the first time since the Hamas cross-border attack on 7 October – which most Israelis hold Netanyahu responsible for –  Israel’s Maariv newspaper on Friday polled Netanyahu’s Likud party as the largest in the Knesset (Israeli parliament) if elections were held today.

More respondents also chose Netanyahu (48%) over National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz (42%), who had been touted by supporters as Israel’s next prime minister. 

Meanwhile, Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas have all promised retaliation, which Khurma said is “feeding Netanyahu’s right-wing agenda that the only way Israel will be secure is to eliminate these enemies”.