As ceasefire deadline looms, will Israel withdraw its troops from Lebanon?
Analysis: With the 60-day ceasefire deadline looming, Israel may keep troops in Lebanon beyond the withdrawal date, highlighting the fragility of the truce.
16 January 2025
Beirut, Lebanon – The clock is quickly ticking down on the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire deal. The US-brokered accord gave 60 days for Hezbollah to end its armed presence in southern Lebanon and for Israeli forces to withdraw from the area, with thousands of Lebanese troops deployed to fill their positions.
In a mere ten days, on 26 January, the deal is due to expire. With time running out, and neither side fully abiding by the deal’s terms, analysts say Israel may remain in south Lebanon longer than they had previously agreed.
“It’s a very fragile situation because [the ceasefire] is not being implemented fully, neither by Israel nor by Hezbollah,” Sami Nader, the director of the Political Sciences Institute at Saint Joseph University of Beirut, told The New Arab.
“Hezbollah did not withdraw swiftly, nor did Israel, as well,” he said.Israel has so far only withdrawn from two Lebanese villages and has troops stationed in some 60 others, where it has forbidden civilians from returning. Lebanese authorities have reported more than 470 Israeli violations of the ceasefire, which have killed 32 people and injured 39 others.
On Monday, Israeli bombs rained down on south Lebanon. The Israeli army said its attacks were against Hezbollah military infrastructure, “threats” they said were left “unaddressed”. At the onset of the truce, the Israelis pledged to aggressively respond to a breach of any of the ceasefire’s terms.
“The chances are high that the [Israelis] will eventually withdraw, but whether they will do it by 26 January, is debatable,” Randa Slim, a fellow with Johns Hopkins Foreign Policy Institute, told TNA.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah has not launched attacks across the border since the deal went into effect, but its patience is growing thin.
“Our patience is linked to when we deem the time to be right; it is the Resistance’s leadership that decides whether to remain patient, initiate an attack, or respond,” Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, said in a speech on 4 January.
“There is no specific timetable that determines the Resistance’s performance, whether through the agreement or after the 60 days or up.”