Will a revamped UN Resolution 1701 end Israel's war on Lebanon?
Analysis: Talk of a ceasefire on the Lebanon-Israel border and the renewal of UN Resolution 1701 is growing, but a deal might still be far away.
31 October 2024
Beirut, Lebanon – Talk is stirring of a forthcoming ceasefire in Lebanon, which would set a roadmap for the implementation of UN Resolution 1701 that ended the 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2006.
The UN resolution mandated UNIFIL and the Lebanese army as the exclusive armed presence south of Lebanon’s Litani River – excluding Hezbollah and Israel. But neither side has ever completely enforced its terms.
Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, said on Wednesday in an interview with the Lebanese TV channel, Al-Jadeed, that he was “cautiously optimistic” a ceasefire could take force “in the coming hours or days”.
However, despite the recent wave of optimism, analysts say a deal remains unlikely. “We are far from an end game in terms of a package deal that both sides can agree upon,” Nicholas Blanford, a Hezbollah expert and non-resident fellow of the Atlantic Council, told The New Arab.
“The Israelis aren’t in the mood to make any compromises at the moment, which would satisfy the Lebanese side, Hezbollah in particular,” he stated.
The Israeli public radio channel, KAN, on Wednesday leaked what is said was a draft ceasefire proposal for Lebanon, urging Israel and Lebanon to implement UN resolutions 1701 and 1559.
The draft proposal states that Israel would withdraw its forces from south Lebanon in a phased manner within seven days, during which time the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) would deploy to the area, in coordination with the US and UN peacekeeping troops.
The proposal also sets an initial 60-day period for Lebanon to “dismantle and confiscate all military assets, arms, and infrastructure of all non-state armed groups [including Hezbollah]…”
However, the US responded to the leaked ceasefire proposal, saying, “There are many reports and drafts circulating. They do not reflect the current state of negotiations”.
US special envoy Amos Hochstein and US President Joe Biden’s Middle East adviser Brett McGurk are reportedly scheduled to visit Israel on Thursday to discuss Gaza, Lebanon, and other “regional matters”.